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Posted 11 Nov 2024

2 min read

Recently, Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have raised concerns about the low fertility rates, slowing population growth in their respective states.

Fertility Rate in India

  • NFHS-5 in 2019-21 showed a decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 2.0, with TFR being the average number of children born to women during their child-bearing years.
    • This is below replacement level fertility of 2.1, at which population can maintain its size across generations.
  • Decrease in fertility rates is not uniform across India with southern States and smaller northern States seeing a much sharper decrease in TFR.
    • For instance, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have TFR of 1.4 and 1.5 respectively, while Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have TFR of 2.7 and 3 respectively.

Factors behind declining fertility rates

  • Family Planning: Implementation of family planning policies and increase in its demand among married women from 66% in 2015-16 (NFHS-4) to 76% in 2019-21 (NFHS-5).
  • Educational Empowerment of Women: Consequent increase in labour market participation led to a higher opportunity cost for having more children.
  • Increasing Living Costs: Concerns about increasing cost of living and housing become barrier to having more children.

Concerns with decline in fertility rate 

  • Ageing societies: Places significant social and economic pressures on government to increase expenditures on pension and health services.
    • Increasing old age dependency ratio burdens young workers economically and emotionally
  • Political Challenges: Potential loss of political representation of states having slow population growth after the expiry of current freeze on number of seats of Parliament in 2026.
  • Labour shortages: Declining fertility rate can create labour shortages. E.g. Japan.
  • Tags :
  • Population Trends
  • Declining Fertility Rates
  • Ageing population
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