The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its SIPRI Yearbook 2024 highlighting a concerning rise in nuclear weapon development and deployment.
Key findings
India’s arsenal increased from 164 in 2023 to 172, representing a slight increase that has given it the two-warhead advantage over Pakistan.
The reliance on nuclear deterrence has deepened, with nine nuclear-armed states modernizing their arsenals and deploying new nuclear-capable systems.
Presently, there’re 12,121 warheads worldwide with 2,100 on high alert.
Also, transparency about nuclear forces has declined in Russia and the US.
Even though the total nuclearwarheads have declined, the number of operational warheads has increased yearly, reflecting current tensions.
Treaties and Non-Proliferation Efforts:
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans all nuclear explosion tests on Earth.
Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT) limits the spread of nuclear weapons through non-proliferation, disarmament, and peaceful use of nuclear energy.
In both CTBT and NPT, India is not a signatory.
International Convention for the Suppression of ActsofNuclear Terrorism, 2005 criminalizes the planning, threat, or execution of acts of nuclear terrorism. India is a signatory.
Nuclear Security Summits where the participants unanimously adopted the goal of securing all vulnerable nuclear material in the next four years. India participates in NSS.
Conference on Disarmament (CD), established in 1979 as a multilateral disarmament negotiating forum by the international community. India has been a regular and active participant in the CD.
The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) is a coalition of non-governmental organizations promoting adherence to and implementation of the United Nations Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This landmark global agreement was adopted in New York, 2017. India has not signed it.
ICAN won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017.
Factors for Procurement of Nuclear Arsenal
Security: Nuclear weapons’ immense destructive power forces nationsto acquire their own nuclear deterrent to balance against nuclear-armed rivals, preserving national security.
Domestic Politics: Powerful state actors like nuclear energy officials, military units, and pro-nuclear politicians form a coalition to acquire nuclear weapons.
The Norm:A normative belief where acquisitions of nuclear weapons by the State bring in prestige (sign of great power), and therefore, influence its behaviour across international I.
Threats posed by nuclear weapons
Global Threat perception
Escalation of Nuclear Risk: Nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation face complexity as stakeholders struggle to separate nuclear issues from broader geopolitical tensions.
E.g., Russia withdrew the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and suspended its membership of the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty).
Nuclear Sabre rattling: It is the use nuclear threats or nuclear bullying to affect geopolitics.
E.g., In 2023, Russia warned that the “nuclear apocalypse” is drawing “closer.”
E.g.,North Korea’s threat in response to U.S.–South Korean joint military exercises.
The Risk of Nuclear Disaster in Ukraine: E.g., Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was targeted with suicide drones in 2024.
Cyber-Nuclear Security Threats: It can be used to undermine the security of nuclear materials and facility operations, and it can compromise nuclear command and control systems.
Space nuclear weapons: Detonating a nuclear weapon in space would create an electromagnetic pulse that would damage satellites indiscriminately, unless they are specially hardened, and create a tremendous amount of debris which could cause additional damages.
India’s threat perception
China is a growing concern for India: Modernisation of Chinese nuclear arsenal and a possible shift away from its “minimum deterrence” and “no first use” posture.
A ‘Cascading Security Dilemma’ with Pakistan: When India arms itself to deter China, Pakistan perceives new threats from India and pursues enhanced capabilities of its own.
Pakistan has opted to emphasize smaller battlefield or “tactical” nuclear weapons (TNWs) as a counter to India’s larger and superior conventional forces.
TNWs have a low range and low yield capacity to limit the destruction to a certain targeted area.
TNWs are also to counter the ‘Cold Start Doctrine’ of the Indian Army, which is to conduct quick military strikes against Pakistan in a pre-emptive way to inflict significant attrition on the enemy.
Unlike India, Pakistan has not declared a No First Use policy, hence, lower the nuclear threshold and introduce a far greater risk.
In a worst-case scenario, Southern Asia would enter an accelerated nuclear arms race.
Nuclear terrorism is constant threat to India: Taking advantage deteriorating security, terrorist groups, aided by supportive countries, may acquire nuclear materials.
Way Forward to de-escalate Nuclear Race
Steps to be taken
The Korean Peninsula
USA/NATO-Russia
South Asia
Immediate Steps:
Refrain from nuclear threats and adopt nuclear no-first-use policy (NFU)
Refrain from provocative military actions
Russia join New START extension
United States, Russia and NATO states commit not to issue public threats of NFU.
Both ratify CTBT
Discuss a broader bilateral or multilateral nuclear test moratorium.
Expand the non-attack agreement to cover all nuclear facilities, military and civilian.
Follow-on Steps:
Pursue a permanent peace regime and end production of plutonium
Suspend US- South Korea joint military drills.
Agree to place all tactical nuclear weapons into central storage under verification.
Gradual nuclear weapon reduction.
Agree to join multilateral disarmament negotiations.
Limit the size of their nuclear arsenals, adopt a bilateral nuclear material production freeze.
“We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons—for as long as they continue to exist—should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war”. Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States (US, China, UK, Russia, France)
Nuclear weapon Technologies
Nuclear weapon, device designed to release energy in an explosive manner as a result of nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, or a combination of the two processes.
Fission weapon
Fusion weapon
Neutron bomb: It’s a thermonuclear weapon. The explosion from a neutron bomb is relatively small.